Forecasting and risk
Know where the project lands – long before it lands
In AIMZ, the final forecast is built up from contracts, purchases, price escalation, change orders and provisions. It is reconciled continuously against the accounts – so the forecast always reflects both what has actually accrued and what you know is coming.
The challenge
A forecast is only as good as the data it's built on
Anyone can read accrued costs off the accounts. The forecast is decided by what hasn't been invoiced yet – notified change orders, signed purchases, provisions. Good judgement about the unknown needs data to build it on.
Costs nobody has recorded
Notified change orders and signed purchases live in email until the invoice arrives. By then they're a surprise, not a forecast.
Forecast moves with no explanation
The forecast shifts by four million, and nobody can say which change order or contract caused it.
Risk as gut feeling
Provisions are set from experience, but the experience sits with the person – not in figures anyone can check.
How AIMZ works
Forecasts backed by solid data
One defined build-up of the final forecast – from estimate to final settlement
At kick-off, the estimate is the basis for the final forecast. As trades are procured, the forecast is built up from the contract, price escalation, change orders, counterclaims, expected cost and uncertainty.
No leakage in the forecast
If an invoice comes in for a cost nobody planned for, the forecast is already wrong. AIMZ links every invoice to the contract, purchase or change order it belongs to – and flags it when the amount exceeds what's been set aside. You deal with it right away, not three months later.
Risk assessments built on experience, not gut feeling
Expected additions and provisions are entered as their own line items, backed by benchmark figures from past projects for each trade. When a change order is later matched to an expected addition, it draws down the provisioned amount instead of stacking on top – so the forecast never counts the same risk twice.
Questions we often get
Do I have to put a subcontractor's change order into the final forecast before it's settled?
No, you decide. You register the notified claim, and set the cost you expect it to end at in the forecast – zero if you don't think the claim will succeed. Adjust as the case is settled. The subcontractor's claim sits alongside it the whole way, so you see both figures.
What happens when an invoice exceeds what's been provisioned?
AIMZ flags it, and you choose whether the cost should be updated to the posted amount – or set higher, if you know more is coming on the same line.
Does an expected addition get counted twice when the change order arrives?
No. If you match the change order to the expected addition, its remaining value is reduced accordingly. The forecast is only affected if the change order is larger than what was provisioned.
How are counterclaims against a subcontractor handled?
A counterclaim is registered with a positive amount, but reduces the final forecast on the relevant accounts. The type decides the sign, so you don't have to work it out yourself.